The hottest balance between supply and demand dete

2022-08-26
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The balance of supply and demand determines the price of aluminum market

from January to May 2005, the world's primary aluminum output was 12.486 million tons, and the output from January to June is expected to be 15.415 million tons, an increase of 5.0% over the same period last year. This growth rate is slower in the past three years, but China's aluminum output and export volume still maintain a high growth. It is expected that the global aluminum production will maintain a high growth in the second half of this year, mainly due to the large growth of aluminum production in Canada and the Middle East in the second half of this year; Since last year, China's regulatory policies on the aluminum industry have produced certain results, but at present, there is only a situation of increasing losses in the industry. It still takes time to receive the effect of substantial and actual production reduction. In the second half of the year, aluminum production and export may still maintain a high growth momentum; The global alumina price is expected to decline, and the profit space of aluminum smelters will be improved, which will provide raw material support for the growth of aluminum production. According to the prediction of the British Commodity Research Institute, the world aluminum output in the second half of 2005 was 16.13 million tons, and the whole year will reach 31.545 million tons, an increase of 5.7% over last year. Although it is lower than the growth rate of 6.5% last year, it can still exert pressure on aluminum prices

supply: global aluminum production will still maintain a high growth in the second half of the year

it is expected that the production of metal aluminum in Canada and the Middle East will increase significantly in 2005, mainly due to the large expansion of metal aluminum production in these two countries and regions. After expansion, the annual production capacity of Alouette aluminum smelter in Canada will increase by 305000 tons; Becancourt aluminum smelter has two production lines that were shut down due to the strike last year and have been reopened. The expansion of Alouette aluminum smelter is being carried out intensively. Becancourt aluminum smelter was launched on April 2; On September 9, the production capacity of Canadian aluminum was reached. It is expected that the output of Canadian aluminum in the third quarter will increase by more than 22% over the beginning of the year, reaching 783000 tons. Bahrain Aluminum Corporation and UAE Aluminum Corporation, two large primary aluminum producers in the Middle East, have embarked on ambitious expansion plans. Bahrain aluminum company plans to expand its production to 1.1 million tons/year, with an annual expansion rate of 300000 tons. UAE aluminum plans to increase production capacity by 25%. It is expected that the expansion of Bahrain aluminum company and UAE aluminum company will increase the aluminum production in the Middle East by nearly 19% to 1.77 million tons this year

since 2003, China has issued a series of macro-control policies. However, from January to April this year, China's metal aluminum output was still as high as 2.358 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 15.2%. The export volume was 445000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 40.4%; The import volume was 142300 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 37.5%

due to the change of supply and demand relationship and the impact of psychological expectations, there is limited room for the recent rise of alumina spot price, and it will gradually fall back from the second half of the year, and the decline will be more obvious in the next year. The downward pressure of aluminum price will be transmitted to alumina price. In the coming period, the early decline of domestic and foreign aluminum prices will gradually be reflected in the international aluminum oxide prices

the huge difference between long order and spot indicates that there is room for alumina prices to fall. In the first quarter of this year, the average alumina price in the domestic spot market was 4330 yuan/ton, while the long-term unit price provided by Aluminum Corporation of China to members of the group and long-term customers was only about 3000 yuan/ton. The huge difference between the long-term single price and the spot price itself shows that there is a large room for decline in alumina prices in the future

consumption: the growth rate is slowing down

from January to May 2005, the world's primary aluminum consumption was 12.817 million tons, and the consumption from January to June is expected to be 15.38 million tons, an increase of 2.8% over the same period last year. Among them, aluminum consumption in China and the United States increased significantly. It is expected that in the second half of this year, global aluminum consumption will still maintain a high growth, but the growth rate will significantly slow down. The main reason is that aluminum demand in Western Europe and Japan has further weakened; China is constantly strengthening the regulation and control of the real estate and power industry, which has a negative impact on aluminum demand, and the U.S. aluminum demand is difficult to outshine others; China adjusted the RMB exchange rate mechanism to increase China's economic variables and curb aluminum consumption. According to the prediction of British Commodity Research Institute, 200; In the second half of five years, the world aluminum consumption will reach 16.457 million tons, and the whole year will be 31.837 million tons, an increase of 5.0% over last year, far lower than the growth rate of 10% last year 0%, making it difficult for aluminum prices to remain high

the demand for aluminum in Western Europe increased by 3.8% in 2004. In the first quarter of this year, due to the failure of economic revitalization, aluminum demand increased by only 1.8%. 2005 ; In the first few months, the demand for aluminum profiles in the construction industry fell under the impact of the severe cold. In the UK, Jaguar decided to close its plant in Coventry, mgrove; The outlook of R automobile group is uncertain, and these factors may reduce the demand for aluminum in the transportation industry in Western Europe. As the appreciation of the euro has restrained exports, it is difficult for aluminum foil shipments to grow. However, several European factories replace tinplate with aluminum, which will lead to a sharp increase in aluminum demand in the packaging industry. At the same time, the demand for aluminum in the electromechanical industry is relatively strong. It is estimated that the demand for metallic aluminum in Western Europe will increase by 1.2% in 2005. In the second half of this year, the growth of industrial production in Japan slowed down, and the appreciation of the yen restrained export demand, so the aluminum demand for the whole year will be quite flat

from January to may, China's aluminum consumption was 2.418 million tons, which is expected to be 2.9016 million tons from January to June, and 6.2 million tons for the whole year, a slight increase of 3.1 compared with the same period last year. However, the detection parameters of the external wall insulation material detection experimental machine developed by Jinan new period Testing Instrument Co., Ltd. are very accurate, and the speed is lower than last year. The main reason is that the investment in China's real estate and power industry will be cooled due to macro-control. Aluminum consumption in real estate and power industry accounts for nearly 50% of China's aluminum consumption, and its industry prospect plays a very important role in China's aluminum consumption

aluminum consumption in the real estate industry accounts for 33% of China's aluminum consumption, accounting for a large proportion. The cooling of the real estate industry is bound to reduce investment and inhibit aluminum consumption. Overall, its impact may be large, and its aluminum consumption may have a small negative growth

affected by the strong demand for electricity, China's power investment has also overheated. Therefore, the macro-control in 2004 also involves the power industry. Aluminum consumption in the power industry accounts for 15% of China's aluminum consumption, ranking third in all industries, with a large proportion. The cooling process of the power industry may be relatively gentle, which is reflected in the aluminum consumption, which mainly leads to the slowdown of the growth of the corresponding aluminum consumption, and the impact on aluminum consumption is less than that of the real estate industry regulation

the impact of RMB appreciation on aluminum consumption can be observed from two aspects. 4. The real-time conditioning of various parts by gold is a toughness experiment:. In the short term, from the perspective of import and export, in the context of the increasing internationalization of world trade, the appreciation of RMB will reduce the import cost of aluminum and its products, thus promoting the development of domestic economy; On the other hand, the appreciation of RMB increases the export cost of aluminum and its products, inhibits exports, and is not conducive to economic growth. This is the dual role of RMB appreciation

comprehensive evaluation of the balance of supply and demand

in 2005, 80% of the world's aluminum production and consumption were preserved at home, with 31.545 million tons and 31.837 million tons respectively. From the perspective of production and consumption balance, annual consumption is greater than production; 292000 tons, far less than the gap of 477000 tons in 2004, but there is still a gap after all. From the perspective of production and consumption gap alone, it seems that domestic and foreign aluminum prices should remain high or rise in 2005. However, it should be recognized that the supply and demand balance of primary aluminum is only an integral part of the world's metal aluminum supply and demand balance, rather than a comprehensive reflection of the supply and demand situation. If we consider the balance between supply and demand of recycled aluminum, this gap will be greatly reduced, even equal to zero

the production and marketing gap is mainly adjusted by inventory changes. In May this year, the world aluminum social inventory was 4.141 million tons, and the inventory consumption ratio was 8.0 weeks. Aluminum inventory continued to decline. The support for prices was mainly reflected in the rise in the first quarter, while there was a sharp decline in the second quarter. From the perspective of inventory level, LME aluminum price is still high at present

we analyzed the possible direction of LME aluminum price operation in the second half of 2005 from the aspects of aluminum production and consumption, and analyzed the time characteristics of its operation from the perspective of technical analysis. However, from any single perspective, it is difficult to comprehensively grasp the overall picture of aluminum prices in the second half of 2005. Therefore, it is necessary to combine the above conclusions for investigation, so as to achieve a deeper understanding of LME aluminum price in the second half of the year

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