The inventory of commercial pulp is "disappointing"
in April, the total inventory of chemical paper grade commercial pulp in North America and Northern Europe (norscan) increased by 9000 tons to 1.918 million tons, greatly exceeding the 1.5 million tons required for the market to reach equilibrium. Previously, most people in the industry believed that inventory would decline
this inventory is available for 34 days, 61% higher than the 19 days last year. Compared with the same period last year, the output of 1.694 million tons and the shipment of 1.686 million tons decreased
industry insiders believe that unless there is a significant increase in demand or a substantial reduction in production, the inventory of commercial pulp can be corrected. Some people pointed out that under the current economic slowdown of Meili and the usual transaction vouchers in summer, pulp users showed no sign of increasing their purchases in the short term
a Wall Street analyst doubted whether manufacturers could reduce production by enough to offset the impact of weak demand. Matt Berler of Dean Witter of Morgan Stanley wrote in his report on Friday: "compared with the first quarter, after years of development, the increase in operating rate and output after major manufacturers widely announced production cuts is very surprising. In addition, due to low prices, production is not very attractive from an economic point of view."
Berler Wen, who will voluntarily spend more money, said: "last month, we noticed that manufacturers are not in a hurry to reduce production capacity to eliminate excess inventory and production capacity. These data have confirmed our feelings."
however, a manufacturer that implemented a sharp production reduction attributed the continued weakness of market size and to the decline in overall demand. "The problem is in the paper market," he said
although several manufacturers in North America made efforts to reduce production in April to curb production, balance inventory, and maintain the operating rate at 85%, many people believe that lukewarm demand offset this effort, and made inventory larger
Goldman Sachs analyst mark Weintraub pointed out in the research report that the increase in inventory is only a "cautious disappointment". He said that although the shipment situation in North America was still "very weak", the pace of demand recession was slowing down, because "when inventories fell to the lowest level in five years, European users increased their purchases again, and China also returned to the market. As a result, the ratio of shipments to manufacturers' inventories rebounded in April."
an American manufacturer doing business in Europe said that the combined effect of reduced production and increased demand may be the beginning of inventory correction. An NBSK manufacturer said, "it is an indisputable fact that the current inventory level of users is very low, which is particularly suitable for a large number of power modules for power generation and utilization. They hope you can deliver them within 5 minutes." However, an American manufacturer believes that the reason for the decline in prices is the increase in supplies flowing into Europe
in the Asian market, compared with the previous month, the shipment to Japan decreased, while other Asian regions except Japan increased because of the bottom price
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