The hottest commodity prices startled the rising t

Commodity prices surprised the rising tide, and the L-shaped trend of coal hidden mystery

Guo Jiaofeng, deputy director of the Institute of resources and environmental policy of the development research center of the State Council, said frankly that under the premise that the L-shaped trend has become a high probability, the recovery of coal prices can only be a flash in the pan

domestic black gold futures and bulk commodities, which have been sealed for a long time by the cold winter, suddenly appeared "little spring" on March 7. But before cheering, the cold came again

on the 7th, the domestic commodity market ushered in a rare trading frenzy. Among them, 16 varieties such as HuJiao, Zhengchun, deformed steel bar, iron ore, PTA, coking coal, coke and glass hit the daily limit, and the black gold series rose the daily limit across the board. Iron ore has become one of the bulk commodities with the largest price increase this year. The price of 62% grade iron ore sent to Qingdao port, China jumped 19%, the largest one-day increase in history, to 63.74% US dollars/ton

"in the case of low inventory, it is possible to increase the purchase price, and the futures market is closely linked with the spot market, resulting in greater fluctuations in this round of market." Zhang Zhibin, chief analyst of Gangfu group's black industry, told the 21st Century Business Herald, "but if the problems of supply and demand side are not really solved, the domestic coal industry as a whole will still not be optimistic."

price fetal movement repeatedly

this round of sharp rise has already been brewing secretly

during the continuous turbulence in the international financial market in February, China's bulk commodity prices rose against the market. Data show that nearly 60% of China's spot commodity prices rose month on month in February, with an average increase of 0.07%, the first positive increase in 10 months

"when the construction starts in spring, the social inventory of iron ore is generally low, resulting in the possibility of purchase price increase. While the linkage of spot and futures market will promote greater market volatility." Zhang Zhibin told 21st Century Business Herald. In fact, as early as the first week of February, steel mills made centralized replenishment during the Spring Festival, which reduced the iron ore inventory in 45 major ports across the country to 96.57 million tons, with a sharp decrease of 1.84 million tons on a weekly basis, resulting in strong expectations of ore price increases after the spring Festival

as iron ore and coal are both in the steel industry chain, the rise of the former also has a certain positive impact on the latter. Since the beginning of March, the coal price has begun to pick up slightly by about 10 yuan/ton. As of March 7, the price of 5500 kcal of thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port was 81 yuan, 380-390 yuan for self-adhesive rubber asphalt waterproof membrane, up 1.32% month on month

in addition to the rise in iron ore prices, changes in supply and demand also contributed to the fluctuations in coal prices this time. In fact, it is not easy. With the resumption of work and production of industrial enterprises in the south, the power load has increased, and the coal consumption of power plants has increased. According to the data released by China's coal industry, the average daily consumption of large power plants on Saturday was 521900 tons, up 64700 tons month on month, and the inventory of four ports was 7.006 million tons, down 7.18% month on month, and the port coal price rose by 5 yuan

"during the Spring Festival, coal enterprises stopped production on a large scale and had holidays. During the" two sessions ", they started work carefully to prevent safety production accidents, which may form a state of tight supply to a certain extent." Shenyin Wanguo coal research can connect 10 actuators simultaneously, an analyst told the 21st Century Business Herald

according to Zhang Pengcheng, senior analyst of black industry chain at Green Dahua Futures Research Institute, the recent rebound in coal industry prices stems from the sharp collapse of coal demand in the third quarter of 2015. After entering the third quarter of 2015, the daily consumption of the six major domestic power plants fell below the perennial average of 500000 tons, resulting in higher coal inventories in ports and power plants than in previous years, and coal enterprises and traders had to reduce prices, resulting in a rapid decline in coal prices. After the gradual completion of de stocking, the replenishment cycle is formed

the replenishment cycle caused several large coal enterprises such as Shenhua and China coal in Qinhuangdao port to raise coal prices, which led to "follow the trend" of many coal enterprises. "Considering the suspension of work during the Spring Festival and the slow resumption of work after the festival, it is expected that the range of power plant inventory reaching more than 13million tons will need to be in mid March." Zhang Pengcheng pointed out in this regard

the "scissors gap" between supply and demand is still

although the microwave undercurrent of coal prices continues, from the overall situation of the coal industry, the long-term adjustment is a foregone conclusion

"the proportion of coal industry in the whole energy structure is declining, showing an L-shaped trend rather than a V-shaped development." Guojiaofeng, deputy director of the resource and Environmental Policy Research Institute of the development research center of the State Council, spoke bluntly to the 21st Century Business Herald. Under the premise that the L-shaped trend has become a general rule, the recovery of coal prices today can only be a flash in the pan

Zhang Zhibin further emphasized to the 21st century economic report that the future prospects of the coal industry are not optimistic, both in terms of the overall demand for steel and thermal power generation. In his view, domestic coal mines are not as competitive as foreign ones. They are mainly retail investors and cannot control prices. Therefore, the real improvement of the coal industry can only rely on the alleviation of the contradiction between demand and supply. "At present, the supply contraction is insufficient and the demand growth is weak. On the whole, it is a scissors gap."

the aforementioned Shenyin Wanguo coal analyst also pointed out that in the future, with the subsequent resumption of production of coal mines, prices will fall down

in addition, the main factor for the recent sluggish demand growth in coal is the overall decline in the demand of downstream industries, rather than the outbreak of alternative energy. Considering that the coal with serious pollution will face the threat of being partially replaced by new energy sources such as hydropower, wind energy, nuclear energy and solar energy, the coal price may not have reached the bottom

"in the long run, the way out for the development of coal will change from direct burning primary energy to deep processing coal chemical industry and new coal chemical industry. Under this background, it is difficult for the price of thermal coal to rise by a large margin, and the continuous fluctuation and decline in 2016 will become a probability event." Founder medium-term futures analysis

in Guo Jiaofeng's view, the change of concept is crucial for the coal industry to get out of the cold winter. "There are still many enterprises who hope that GDP will reverse and return to the state five years ago, which is not in line with the objective law. Coal enterprises should find rebalancing at a new level." Guo Jiaofeng emphasized

on the basis of concept change, coal enterprises should change their development mode. For example, from the aspects of production, transportation, consumption and so on, coal enterprises should try hard to clean, develop and use green equipment, so as to change coal from "black" to "green"; In terms of institutional innovation, the gradual introduction of carbon emissions trading and environmental taxes, and the internalization of external costs, also require coal enterprises to adapt in the industrial field; In addition, the exploration of coal chemical industry and coal electricity integration should also be put on the agenda

"at present, my feeling is that other energy fields are very energetic to rise to a fixed position, and new technologies have made breakthroughs from time to time. Although the coal industry has been cold, there is no sense of urgency." Guo Jiaofeng said frankly